Answers

The first part of your question depends on primarily 2 factors:

1. popularity

2. availability

If the car is a popular model, 1 year difference may not make much difference in the TMV, which of course can't be lower than the invoice price.

Now, if there are quite a bit of unsold units sitting on dealers lots, then that is an entirely different matter, high numbers of units available = lower selling price, selling price very negotiable.

Cash back incentives can be received much easier on number 2 than from number 1 .

hope this helps.

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I don't know any reason why TMV couldn't be lower than invoice. I haven't seen it but the way the auto industry is going, who knows what could happen. Dealer invoice doesn't necessarily mean the dealer paid that - there's usually holdback, rebates, spiffs, bonuses, marketing support and who knows what else that can lower the cost to the dealer. Toyota is about to get into a price war - Prius vs Insight - so maybe the TMV will fall that low in a few months? Ok, probably a stretch, but I have seen TMV be the same as invoice. Throw in customer cash, and you can get below invoice, like on the G6 currently.

But back to the question, there's really no good rule for this scenario. If the brand you are looking at offers certified used cars, you could appraise the car as a CPO one with low miles. When I tried comparing a use '08 and a new '09 Honda Accord EX automatic, the CPO price ($21,449) was about $1200 less than the '09 ($22,664).

And that exercise illustrates the problem. You have a car that is a year old with that extra depreciation hit when you drive it off the lot, plus it may have been made and delivered a year ago, and the battery may be about dead, some dry rot or flat spotting may have occurred with the tires, and the fluids may have degraded. Yet dealers always seem to ask more money for "new old stock" than they seem worth to me. For the $1200 difference, I'd rather have the '09. Or a 2010 at this point.

Please report back as your negotiations progress - I'm always curious to see how these deals shake out (you can use the Answer this Question button to reply in this thread). Thanks!

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what i was trying to say was that as the TMV goes lower, so would the invoice price.

i really doubt that the invoice will ever be equal to the cost the dealer paid for a car, unless the factory were to give the dealer a bonus for selling their merchandise.

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Well, as the invoice goes lower, the TMV would too. Since the invoice doesn't necessarily reflect what the dealer actually pays, I could see a situation where TMV goes lower while invoice doesn't change.

In Boble's case, it's hard to justify paying close to new TMV when the car is a year old, even though it's never been registered, has very few miles on it, and it technically "new."

Yet it seems that dealers aren't willing to discount these kinds of cars very much. It always seems odd to me, since the holdback is usually only for 90 days (if there is any) and the floor planning expense continues until the car is sold.

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